Monday, January 12, 2015

The Gathering Storm and Avoidable Shipwreck (V) by Dr. Tunde Bakare

OUR PROPOSITIONAL ALTERNATIVE
What I have said in the past to our nation and our leaders, I will repeat here once more. To avoid the gathering storms, the following steps should be taken:
1  Activate the constitutional provisions for the suspension of elections
Section 135(3) of the 1999 Constitution provides as follows:
If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is          physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection       (2) of this section from time to time; but no such extension shall          exceed a period of six months at any one time.
The argument against this would be the notion that the country is not at war. If indeed the country is not at war, how can one explain the invasion and annexation of Nigerian territory by insurgents launching attacks from our borders and neighbouring countries? Let us not forget that on May 14, 2013, while declaring a state of emergency in three states, President Goodluck Jonathan said of the activities of terrorists:
“These actions amount to a declaration of war and a deliberate       attempt to undermine the authority of the Nigerian state and        threaten its territorial integrity. As a responsible government, we      will not tolerate this”.
Records indicate that since that declaration, the situation has only worsened. Therefore, if the country was at war then, according to the president, it is even more so now.
I do recognise the fact that opinions are divided on whether or not the Boko Haram plague can be described as war or just an act of insurgency. Truth be told, this is mere semantics. As Aesop said, “the injury we do and the one we suffer are not weighed in the same scales”. Depending on which side of the divide one belongs, the difference between war and insurgency can be likened to the difference between terrorists and freedom fighters. One man’s meat is another man’s poison, just as one man’s music is another man’s noise. Those that are condemned as ‘terrorists’ by one group are hailed as ‘freedom fighters’ by another.
Therefore, I submit that if the President considers that a part of the federation will be disenfranschised by reason of the Boko Haram plague, a postponement of the election may not be out of place. In my view, the litmus test to arrive at the type of war contemplated by the constitution is the practicality of getting people in the affected states to line up to vote for candidates of their choice in situations where they cannot predict when the next attack will be launched by insurgents. I hold the view that the drafters of the law feared for mass disenfranchisement of Nigerians who will refuse to risk their lives, hence the requirement that the nation wins the war before conducting an election.
Be that as it may, there is yet another argument. It goes thus: “Since the government has demonstrated a very high degree of incompetence as far as combatting terrorism, is it not better to have a replacement, particularly in terms of a new government led by the person of the APC candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, which can only happen through elections?” This reasoning seems valid, for though the president has made several attempts at tackling the issue, his avowed political will has not yielded fruit and the situation has only worsened. It is perhaps too complicated for him to deal with. But what is the guarantee that there will be free, fair and credible elections and the opposition will not be rigged out of victory once again? What is the guarantee that the power of incumbency will not successfully manipulate the presidential elections? Even if General Buhari wins, what would happen if, in response to a Buhari victory, another wave of insurgency explodes in the South-South in such proportion that will completely ground the Nigerian economy? Is that what we want as a nation?
However, I must state that the proposal for suspension of elections is not with a view to giving the president an avenue for undue tenure elongation but for the purpose of building a coalition that will bring lasting solutions to our problems.
2  Create a Transitional Government
In suspending the elections, to gain the support of all stakeholders, the president must not act with the intention to seek re-election. Rather, he should, within the period, commit himself to building a non-partisan coalition comprised of major stakeholders and competent statesmen from each geopolitical zone. This coalition, headed by the president, will constitute a combined force that will tackle terrorism and address what I have earlier referred to as the fundamentals, within a time frame of two years or less.
3  Address the Fundamentals
Addressing the fundamentals calls for immediate implementation  of the report, or part thereof, of the 2014 National Conference especially as it relates to:
1  Restructuring with a view to achieving true federalism under Zonal Commissions as well as fiscal federalism ensuring, as proposed by the report of the National Conference, that adequate allocation is given to a Solid Minerals Development Fund in addition to other recommendations geared towards economic diversification.
1  Achieving national reconciliation and integration by adopting, constitutionalizing and propagating the National Charter for Reconciliation and Integration.
4 Conduct accurate census
Aside facilitating development planning, an accurate census will lay the foundation for a sound identity management scheme, facilitate effective and efficient local government administration, provide the basis for proper constituency delineation and enable the conduct of well-organized voter-registration exercises.
5  Establish a truly independent electoral body
A truly independent electoral body whose head will no longer be appointed by the president and whose funding will be drawn from first line charge on the federation account will guarantee the conduct of free, fair and credible elections.
6  Create a true people’s constitution that will reflect the aforementioned features
A true people’s constitution, rather than being preambled by a military decree, as in the case of the 1999 constitution, will be preceded by the people’s expressed interest to co-exist as a nation and be governed under agreed principles as espoused in the Charter for National Reconciliation and Integration adopted at the 2014 National Conference.
7  Conduct free, fair and credible elections in the consensually accepted constitutional arrangement
In the end, as an integrated rather than regionally and religiously divided nation, we will arrive at the same juncture we are currently but, at that time, better prepared with the fundamentals in place and with the nation set for the leadership of the best of the north and the best of the south while the federating units, truly federal, are constitutionally empowered for collaborative and competitive development.
SETTING SAIL IN SPITE OF THE STORM CLOUDS
Despite this timely warning which includes the way forward to credible elections and to a stable and prosperous nationhood, I am almost certain that, like the helmsman and owner of the Alexandrian ship in Acts 27 as well as the majority in the ship, the handlers of our nation will prefer to set sail rather than winter at Fair Havens. From the 13th verse of Acts 27, we understand that the decision to set sail was fuelled by the fact that the southern wind blew softly and gave the illusion of safety. It reads:
          13When the south wind blew softly, supposing that they had obtained their desire, putting out to sea, they sailed close by Crete.    [Please note that Crete means carnal or fleshly.]
Ladies and gentlemen, the south wind blew recently, when Gen Muhammadu Buhari against formidable contestants and money bags won with a landslide majority at the APC primary in the heart of Lagos, South-western Nigeria – and that against all odds.
Added to that, the relative peace in the South has kept us from seeing the severity of the crisis rocking our nation and its potential to be aggravated by premature electioneering. However, in the 14th verse of Acts 27, we find that, not long after, a tempestuous wind called Euroclydon arose and hit the sea and the ship was caught in the midst of it until it could no longer be controlled. That ship drifted until it was wrecked.
Euroclydon is a cyclonic, tempestuous north-east wind. It is reminiscent of the wave of terror attacks bedeviling the nation from the North-East as though reminding us that, going by precedent, an incumbency-rigged election could cause the volatile electorate in the region to take advantage of the Boko Haram crisis which has snowballed from the North-East to unleash a storm on the nation from the North and that likewise, a Northern victory will only resuscitate a South-South resistance.
AFTER THE STORM: NIGERIA, THE BIGGEST MIRACLE OF THE CENTURY
It is noteworthy that, after all was said and done, just as God assured Paul, no life was lost, though the ship was wrecked and property was lost. It is very gratifying that, in the end, the majority that was wrong became the minority and the lone voice minority that was right became the majority.
Paul, the prisoner, became the commander with a clear blue print on how to salvage lives from the avoidable wreckage. And as he instructed the centurion, he had no choice but to comply.
Ladies and gentlemen, my heartfelt prayer at this juncture is that our leaders will listen and do the needful to avert an avoidable disaster, so that there will be no need for anyone to say at the end, “we told you so”.
I find it very useful to repeat the words of Paul here with all humility, trusting God that all men of goodwill in and outside of government will hear, heed and act accordingly.
Acts 27:20-26 (NKJV):
          20 Now when neither sun nor stars appeared for many days, and no           small tempest beat on us, all hope that we would be saved was     finally given up. 21 But after long abstinence from food, then Paul      stood in the midst of them and said, “Men, you should have listened to me, and not have sailed from Crete and incurred this        disaster and loss. 22 And now I urge you to take heart, for there will     be no loss of life among you, but only of the ship. 23 For there         stood by me this night an angel of the God to whom I belong       and    whom I serve, 24 saying, ‘Do not be afraid, Paul; you must be      brought before Caesar; and indeed God has     granted you all those        who sail with you.’ 25 Therefore take heart, men, for I believe God    that it will be just as it was told me. 26 However, we must run aground on a certain island.”
Paul further said in Acts 27:30-36 (NKJV):
          30 And as the sailors were seeking to escape from the ship, when     they had let down the skiff into the sea, under pretense of putting   out anchors from the prow, 31 Paul said to the centurion and the           soldiers, “Unless these men stay in the ship, you cannot be   saved.” 32 Then the soldiers cut away the ropes of the skiff and let        it fall off. 33 And as day was about to dawn, Paul implored them all to take food, saying, “Today is the fourteenth day you have waited     and    continued without food, and eaten nothing. 34 Therefore I        urge you to take nourishment, for this is for your survival, since      not a hair will fall from the head of any of you.” 35 And when he had said these things, he took bread and gave thanks to God in       the presence of them all; and when he had broken it he began       to       eat.36 Then they were all encouraged, and also took food themselves.
Ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, let me at this juncture encourage you all, those within the country and those in the Diaspora, to join us at The Latter Rain Assembly as we observe a  14-day solemn assembly – a time of corporate fasting and prayer from Sunday the 1st of February to Saturday the 14th of February, 2015 to entreat the God of heaven for the survival of our nation. We shall meet daily for corporate prayers on all 14 days from 6.00 p.m. to 8.00 p.m.
In closing, let me place on the register my full persuasion regarding the outcome of our present dilemma. I am fully persuaded that, no matter how dark it becomes for Nigeria, there is a silver lining beyond the dark clouds and this nation will overcome the storms and rise to fulfill her destiny. I believe that no matter how unstable the polity may become, we will transit from shame to fame in the name of Jesus. Amen. I am persuaded that no matter the level of economic collapse, the economy of Nigeria will recover. So, in preparation for a previous prophecy, let us begin to expect the emergence of the tender plant from the side of the North, afore-prepared before the foundation of the world to steer Nigeria into her prophetic destiny. We are in the season of his emergence. What the mouth of the Lord has spoken, the zeal of the Lord will accomplish. Amen.
I am further persuaded that our national reconciliation, integration and full recovery will be a wonder to the world and that leaders of nations will beat a path to our doorstep to understudy God’s power at transforming nations.
Our authority for this assertion is God’s word as recorded in Psalm 126: 1-6 (NKJV):
                1 When the Lord brought back the captivity of Zion, We were like    those who dream. Then our mouth was filled with laughter, And our tongue with singing. Then they said among the nations,  “The Lord has done great things for them.” The Lord has done     great things for us, And we are glad. Bring back our captivity,   O Lord, As the streams in the South. Those who sow in tears   Shall reap in joy. He who continually goes forth weeping,   Bearing seed for sowing, Shall doubtless come again with          rejoicing, Bringing his sheaves with him.
Therefore, come rain, come shine, by the grace of the living God, Nigeria will be saved, Nigeria will be changed and Nigeria will become great in my lifetime.

Thank you, God bless you and God bless Nigeria. Happy New Year to you all.

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