WEATHER FORECAST: OMINOUS
SHADOWS AND GATHERING STORM
In Acts 27:9-10,
Paul warned that the voyage would end in disaster. But the centurion, the
commander of the army that was charged to take Paul to Rome, was persuaded more
by the opinion of the ‘experts’ – the helmsman and owner of the ship – than by
what Paul was saying. One would want to ask: were there no visible signs
of the impending storm? Was it just Paul’s spiritual perception that was at
work? We will find that the journey all the way to Fair Havens from the coasts
of Asia, beginning from the ship of Adramyttium, was laden with difficulty
because of contrary winds that caused difficulty in navigation and obstructed
procession (verses 4 and 7). Likewise, in our nation, despite the
warnings, Mr. President is more persuaded by the assurances given him by the
experts – including the managers of the economy, the organizers of the
elections, the heads of the armed forces and security agencies – as well as the
expectations of the majority than by a lone voice charging him to camp for a
while in order to fix the fundamentals. However, the same question applies in
the case of our nation: is it just my perception and those of others in the
minority that have prompted this warning of an impending storm? Are the signs
not visible? What is the weather forecast saying?
Weather forecasting entails the
gathering of quantitative data and the application of an understanding of
atmospheric behavior to predict the changes in weather. Jesus made reference to
this practice in Matthew 16:1-3 (NKJV):
1 Then the
Pharisees and Sadducees came, and testing Him asked that He would
show them a sign from heaven. 2He answered and
said to them, “When it is evening you say, ‘It will be fair
weather, for the sky is red’; 3 and in the morning, ‘It will be foul weather
today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ Hypocrites! You know how to discern
the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the times.
When I first alerted the nation
that there would be no 2015 if the fundamentals were not addressed, I was asked
if I was giving a prophecy in the order of “thus saith the Lord”. Even now,
many are asking the same question. At that time, like Paul, I told you that I
had perceived it. But, I would want to ask, are the signs not there? If we can
predict the weather, would it not be hypocritical to feign ignorance regarding
the foreboding state of the nation? Can we not see the clouds gathering ahead
of a major storm? Warning! There is too much turbulence ahead!
A competent helmsman knows not to sail in such a situation instead of ignoring
the weather forecast only to subsequently shipwreck, kill himself,
the crew and the passengers, as well as destroy the ship and cargo!
I will briefly highlight certain
crucial developments that we may be disregarding as we set sail into the
general elections but I must first point out that the purpose for highlighting
these red flags is to challenge decision makers and political stakeholders as
well as security, military and intelligence agencies to take the steps
necessary to avert crisis before elections, during elections and after
elections whenever they hold. I must also warn that if we sail into general
elections at this time without fixing the fundamentals, no matter what
precaution is taken by the helmsman and the owner of the ship, once the ship
sets sail from Fair Havens, an encounter with Euroclydon would be inevitable.
Against this backdrop, I present the signs of the gathering storms:
Sign 1: Poor Level of Election
Preparedness
Reasonable people are inclined
to ask how prepared the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is for
the upcoming general elections. Despite the desperate efforts of the Commission
to manage pre-election logistics, the tales of woe that have trailed the
Permanent Voters’ Card collection exercise have raised a lot of questions as to
the level of preparedness of the Commission with many Nigerians fearing
disenfranchisement. The Vanguard of November 15, 2014, in an article
titled “Permanent Voters’ Cards, PVC: How INEC Failed Nigerians”, reported that
more than 75% of the PVCs in rural areas in Lagos were left uncollected.
Similar and even worse tales of woe trailed the exercise in other states such
as in Edo State where PVCs were stolen. The Nigerian Pilot of November
17, 2014 reported a collection rate of less than 50% in Abia State. A survey
conducted by News Agency of Nigeria on public perception regarding INEC’s
preparedness for the elections, including the organization’s handling of voter
registration and card collection exercises and the adoption of recommendations
to forestall the challenges of the 2011 elections, gave INEC a low scorecard.
Similarly, acts of lawlessness
on the part of political parties and seeming partisanship on the part of
security agencies have raised questions as to the readiness of stakeholders to
conduct or to allow the conduct of free, fair and credible elections. How else
can one explain the fact that in violation of section 99(1) of the Electoral Act
2010 (as amended), political campaigns commenced long before the opening of the
window? How else can one explain the invasion of the secretariat of the APC by
the Department of State Security? Either a political party was devising
unlawful schemes in which case culprits ought to be prosecuted and details
exposed or the DSS was acting out a script written to repress opposition
parties. Whichever may have been the case, it questions the readiness of
stakeholders to operate by the rules.
Sign 2: Safety and Security
Risks
A study on Boko Haram attacks in
Nigeria in the period between 2006 and 2013 by Chatham House in the United
Kingdom revealed that 17 states in the North were terror prone and recorded
varying degrees of violent attacks leading to violent deaths. In terms of
frequency of attacks, Borno, Yobe, Kano, Kaduna, Adamawa and Bauchi, in that
order, led the other states. Further compilation of recorded incidents from
other sources showed that towards mid-2014, Boko Haram attacks had become an
almost daily occurrence in Borno State. Terror attacks or threats of same were
also reported in northern states that had previously been free of such,
including Kogi and Nasarawa, as well as in southern states such as Lagos, Delta
and Imo.
Given the new tactics being
adopted by the Boko Haram sect especially suicide bombing by teenage girls who,
it appears, the sect is increasingly targeting for abduction, the risk factor
in massive political rallies and polling units across the North of the country
and, to a lesser extent, in the South, is dangerously high. Let us not forget
that in December 2014, a female suicide bomber arrested by vigilante forces in
Borno State revealed that 50 other female suicide bombers had been let loose.
As INEC has requested of the
Federal Government a massive deployment of armed forces and security agencies
for the general elections, a proposal that is being opposed by opposition
parties, I challenge the Federal Government to conduct an honest assessment of
the capability and numerical strength of each of the security agencies and
armed forces and assure Nigerians that the ratio of forces to polling units
across the federation is such that can effectively ward off potential attacks
and guarantee security. The logic would be to deploy more forces to areas that
are highly prone to terror but security tacticians must not forget that deceit
is a weapon of war. Terrorists might seek to take the nation by surprise and
target less protected areas which, ordinarily, might have been less terror prone.
Let the security agents also be mindful of what I will refer to as the Ziklag
factor (1st Samuel 30). If security agencies are to
be massively deployed to polling units on Election Day, it would be risky to
leave the home front unprotected in terror prone areas as terror attacks might
be unleashed on homes to target the non-voting population. Worse still, with
their antecedents of becoming partisan and getting caught up in politicking
during elections, can our security agents maintain the level of alertness
required to quell potential attacks? We might have succeeded in organizing some
gubernatorial elections in the South, and the aborted gubernatorial election in
Adamawa due to the subsequent swearing-in of the deputy governor, by massively
deploying military and civil defence forces; however, we cannot ignore these
threats ahead of the general elections.
Sign 3: Likely Minority
King-making
Nigeria has a history of low
voter turnout. For instance, the 2011 parliamentary elections recorded 25.8%
turnout while the presidential elections recorded 48.32%. In essence, electoral
decisions in Nigeria are made by the minority. Given the state of the nation,
in spite of the excitement trailing the emergence of candidates, the 2015
elections threaten to record an even worse turnout. Aside the problems
associated with voter registration and PVC collection, if the reported hundreds
of thousands of displaced persons in terror prone areas are considered with
respect to their status as part and parcel of the electorate, and if
terror-stricken towns are considered in terms of polling units involved, then
we are faced with the likelihood of massive disenfranchisement and voter apathy
that could render the elections disputable and inconclusive.
Sign 4: Looming Constitutional
and Legal Crisis
The constitutional provisions
for election into the office of the president as articulated in section 132 of
the 1999 Constitution provides a window for challenging the validity of any
presidential election if elections cannot be held in some parts of the country
as might be the case if the security situation is not addressed before the
elections. Section 132(4) provides that:
For the purpose of an election
to the office of President, the whole of the Federation shall be regarded as
one constituency.
Section 47 of the Electoral Act
2010 further provides that:
Voting in any particular
election under this Act shall take place on the same day and time
throughout the Federation.
By these provisions, it is clear
that any presidential election that excludes certain parts of the nation will
result in constitutional crisis and legal battles that may further heighten
sectional tensions.
Sign 5: Impending Post-election
Tension
This necessitates a look at
those pointers to possible post-election tension. First, like the gathering of
the clouds, the utterances of vested interests from the northern and southern
sections of the country as to how they will react if the election turns one way
or the other is a pointer to an impending storm that the nation must not
ignore. In recent times, direct threats in this regard have been coming from
vested interests in the South-South with a history of militancy. This should
give the nation a grave cause for concern when considered against the massive
oil theft in the region as well as reports suggesting arms build-up with
ex-militants allegedly linked to a botched South African arms deal that was
widely reported, and to the purchase of six warships as reported in The
Punch newspaper of December 13, 2014. Mind you, the Global Terrorism
Index report identified 6 terror groups in Nigeria. Contrary to public
perception, according to the report, even though Boko Haram is currently the
deadliest terror group in the country and has laid claim to about 90% of the
terror attacks in the period covered by the report, the largest terror group in
Nigeria is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) with a
membership strength of about 15,000 despite its having recorded much fewer
attacks than Boko Haram. Ladies and gentlemen, one does not need a soothsayer
to know this is a red flag!
On the other hand, the readiness
of the multitude of northern youth to violently defend what they perceive as
theirs, rightly or wrongly, is well documented in our recent election experience.
The nation would not want to be caught-up in violence involving two regions.
Another civil war in addition to terrorism would be too much weight on an
ailing nation. Why not first address the root causes of these tensions that
mount up every election year – root causes that elections themselves cannot
resolve but aggravate?
Sign 6: Looming Economic
Collapse
Alongside these pointers to
political upheaval are the signs of an impending economic collapse. Any of the
following scenarios is possible:
1 Inflation
With the proposed
diversification of revenue base from oil to taxation and with the devaluation
of the naira in an economy that is largely import dependent, cost-push
inflation is likely to occur. Also, the flow of money into the economy through
politics within the first quarter of the year ahead of the elections could as
well facilitate a demand-pull inflation. The so-called average Nigerian who has
no place on the dinner table would bear the brunt. It is even doubtful that
they can access the crumbs that fall from the master’s table.
2 Deflation
With the expected reduction in
government spending for a nation whose financial sector is still largely
government supported and with likely reduction in purchasing power due to
taxation and possible job cuts in the public as well as private sector, a fall
in aggregate demand would eventually lead to deflation. An inflation-deflation
transition could result in losses for investors in volatile markets such as
securities and property.
3 Monetary Collapse
The depletion of our foreign
reserves, the dip in crude oil prices and its downward impact on our foreign
earnings, the weak state of our manufacturing sector, and our import dependence
could lead to a sustained downward spiral in the value of our currency.
We are therefore faced with the
challenge of managing a volatile transition process and a looming economic
downturn at the same time. It will interest you to note that the same
fundamentals that must be addressed in the political dimension of our
challenges also hold the key to economic stability and prosperity for our
beloved nation. However, before we take a look at these fundamentals, it is
necessary to point out one more sign of the gathering storms that has to do
with my constituency, the church, and its interaction with the political space
in 2015.
Sign 7: Potential Religious
Confusion, Betrayals, Scandals and Persecution
In 2011, when I was selected by
General Buhari as running mate, there was a gang-up against that ticket by a
substantial section of the church which preferred the candidate that was
perceived as Christian, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. Not only was the church not
convinced about General Buhari’s non-fundamentalist stance, it also refused to
give support to the running mate who, in its perception, is controversial and
non-conformist. At that time, the mantra amongst many men of God was that a
pastor had nothing to do with politics. Reports also have it that Christian
clergy received financial inducement from their preferred candidate who is
again contesting against the same General Buhari in 2015. To compound the
matter, General Buhari’s running mate is another pastor who should ordinarily
have the support of his home church, a very influential denomination in and
outside the country and whose head is highly respected in the Christian
establishment. Therefore, ordinarily, for those to whom religion means a lot in
the making of electoral decisions, the current running mate of the APC should
be tiwa n tiwa, that is, “our own” and should be massively supported by
the church. But it is not going to be that easy. What would be the implication
of turning away from the incumbent who was massively supported in 2011 by the
church establishment?
How about those for whom the
president has done one favour or another, such as waivers, contracts, soft
landings, protection of vested interests in one form or another, or even
outright monetary gifts – not necessarily bribery, just a ‘harmless’ gift?
Would these pastors, priests and prophets now turn against their benefactor, the
president, to give support to “our own”? What will be the position of the
Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and the Pentecostal Fellowship of
Nigeria (PFN), organizations that have been massively behind the president and
who are likely biased against APC as PFN’s 2015 round-the-clock circulated
prayer bulletin reveals? Would there be reminders that this same incumbent has
knelt before us at our conventions where we laid hands on him and supposedly
endorsed him? Or, would we make a u-turn now that this is “our own”? Would such
a u-turn not come with dire consequences reminiscent of the Abimelech
experience with the men of Shechem in Judges 9:22-24 (NKJV)?:
22 After Abimelech had reigned over
Israel three years, 23 God sent a spirit of ill
will between Abimelech and the men of Shechem; and the
men of Shechem dealt treacherously with Abimelech, 24 that the crime done to the seventy sons of Jerubbaal might be
settled and their blood be laid on Abimelech
their brother, who
killed them, and on the men of
Shechem, who aided him in the killing of his brothers.
Let us not forget that the men
of Shechem paid dearly for it – with their lives, in fact. Do we see
persecution looming for the church? Do we see high profile scandals emerging if
the church makes such a u-turn? Or would the church simply deny or betray its
own or, like the ostrich deprived of wisdom, treat its young harshly and choose
to support incumbency in order to stay safe and protect interests and investments?
Would the question of support and endorsement pitch major religious leaders
against one another with brothers fighting against brother whether in secret or
in the open? See Job 39:13-18 (NKJV):
13 “The wings of the ostrich wave
proudly, But are her wings and pinions like the kindly
stork’s? 14 For she leaves her eggs on the
ground, And warms them in the dust; 15 She forgets that a foot may
crush them, Or that a
wild beast may break them. 16 She treats her young harshly, as
though they were not hers; Her labor is in vain,
without concern, 17 Because God deprived her of wisdom, And
did not endow her with understanding. 18 When she lifts herself on
high, She scorns the horse and its rider.
Challenging as all these may be,
our confidence is in the fact that no matter the degree of shaking that will
occur, it will only produce a glorious church without spots or wrinkle, for
Jesus, the true Head of the Church, said He would build His church and the
gates of hell shall not prevail against it. Alleluia! (Matthew 16:18)
Having said that, let us take a
look at the options available to our nation, that is, the alternative to
setting sail in spite of the imminent storms of a political, economic, military
and religious nature – the stirrings of the Four Winds of the Earth upon our
nation.
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