The President After My Heart

Did you listen to Obama's State of the Union address?

Give me a BHO and I'll put GEJ up for barter. I mentioned in my review of GEJ's inaugural speech which was published in Punch Newspaper and OU Journal - Only once in Mr. President’s inaugural address did we see a [seeming] firm active voice, “The urgent task of my administration is to provide a suitable environment, for productive activities to flourish. I therefore call on the good people of Nigeria, to enlist as agents of this great transformation.” But even that was vague. A leader must have integrity and must be accountable; I mean a real active and vibrant leader.

Nigerians must be able to hold our president accountable. But how can we do that when manifesto and inaugural speech was filled with sensational statements? The entire 20-point inaugural speech can be broken into the following key messages:

1. Gratitude and appreciation for votes and promise of being worthy of our trust. Special appreciation of Nigerians for collective commitment to building a democratic country, of course PDP was specifically mentioned.

2. Acknowledgement of “brother heads of state and government” or representatives, chair person of African Union, world leaders, development partners and guests.

3. Salutation of his friend and brother, Mr. VP Sambo for being a pillar of support, First Lady, Madam Peace for galvanizing and mobilizing Nigerian women for the cause of democracy and salutation to his parents. Congratulations to elected Governors, Senators, members of the House of Representatives and those of the States Houses of Assembly.

4. Tribute to the late President, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and to Nigeria’s founding fathers for their enduring sacrifice

5. Acknowledgment of the over 70M that registered to vote and those who struggled against limitations and challenges to vote, and of the spirit of resilience to build a strong nation

6. Affirmation of Nigeria’s unity, unshakable determination to unite our nation and improve the living standards of all our peoples. Mr President’s confidence that a people that are truly committed to a noble ideal, cannot be denied the realization of their vision and an assurance that Nigeria’s dream that is so deeply felt by millions will indeed come to reality. An affirmation of the sacrifice that gave the people’s mandate to a candidate from the minorities.

7. A note of sympathy for a fan that overwhelmed by the joy of victory, after campaigning enthusiastically, collapsed and passed on three days later. A sympathetic acknowledgement of the many patriotic and diligent souls especially members of the Armed Forces and the NYSC that were lost in re-birthing our democracy

8. A charge to those elected for patriotism and passion, demonstrable leadership, statesmanship, vision, capacity, and sacrifice, to transform our nation to match the hopes and aspirations of the great people. We must strengthen common grounds, develop new areas of understanding and collaboration, and seek fresh ideas that will enrich our national consensus. It is the supreme task of this generation to give hope to the hopeless, strength to the weak and protection to the defenceless.

9. A promise of transformation in all the critical sectors, by harnessing the creative energies of our people.

10. A promise to grow the economy, create jobs, and generate enduring happiness for Nigerians and trust in the ability of Nigerians to transform Nigeria. “The urgent task of my administration is to provide a suitable environment, for productive activities to flourish. I therefore call on the good people of Nigeria, to enlist as agents of this great transformation”.

Unfortunately, we have had in the recent past, presidents who never chose to be president. Jonathan got their by luck, Yar'adua was a response to the North's prayer...

So we have occcupied Nigeria, occupied the media and even occupied external territories with protests that only seem to have made our corrupt learders position themselves to be innovate with regards to how they fool the citizenry. Despite the government’s win, the protest got a huge buy in this time because it went beyond organised labour.

But take a moment to trace to the past and you'd see a tradition... price hike, brouhaha, silly negotiations, back track to the actually intended hike which in this case was N100. So those in the corridors of power are actually laughing hopefully we can make them laugh from their behind.

The turnout was unprecedented so we should have insisted on N65 or nothing. But again, few corrupt folks in the corridor of power, a bunch of rich and equally corrupt supporters and a group of security dogs who feed on Naira outsmarted a country with over 150m people.

If nothing else, we must celebrate the little milestone we have made. Today, Nigerians are wiser especially considering the huge outflow of information that made it across the country and all over the world virally. The can of worms we have opened will keep crawling. I hope these worms will crawl all over every corrupt person and crawl over their humanhood and force them to be accountable and join the fight against corruption.

Subsidy Made Simple

This is transcript of SMS by Pastor 'Tunde Bakare

FACTS YOU MUST KNOW: SUBSIDY MADE SIMPLE (SMS)

1) DEFINITION

To subsidise is to sell a product below the cost of production. Since the federal government has been secretive about the state of our refineries and their production capacity, we will focus on importation rather than production. So, in essence, within the Nigerian Fuel Subsidy context, to subsidise is to sell petrol below the cost of importation.

2) THE UNSUBSTANTIATED CLAIMS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

The Nigerian government claims that Nigerians consume 34 million litres of petrol per day. The government has also said publicly that N141 per litre is the unsubsidised pump price of petrol imported into Nigeria. (N131.70 kobo being the landing price and N9.30 kobo being profit.)

3) ANNUAL COST OF IMPORTATION

Daily Fuel Consumption: 34 million litres
Cost at Pump: N141.00
No. of days in a regular year: 365 days

Total cost of all petrol imported yearly into Nigeria:
LitresxNairaxDays
34m x 141 x 365 = N1.75 trillion

4) COST BORNE BY THE CONSUMERS

Nigerians have been paying N65 per litre for fuel, haven’t we? Therefore, cost borne by the consumers =

LitresxNairaxDays
34m x 65 x 365 = N807 billion

5) COST OF SUBSIDY BORNE BY THE GOVERNMENT

In 2011 alone, government claimed to have spent N1.3 trillion by October – the bill for the full year, assuming a constant rate of consumption is N1.56 trillion.

Consequently, the true cost of subsidy borne by the government is:

Total cost of importation minus total borne by consumers, i.e. N1.75 trillion minus N807 billion = N943 billion.

Unexplainable difference: N617 billion

The Federal Government of Nigeria cannot explain the difference between the amount actually disbursed for subsidy and the cost borne by Nigerians (N1.56 trillion minus N943 billion = N617 billion).

6) BOGUS CLAIM BY THE GOVERNMENT

A government official has claimed that the shortfall of N617 billion is what goes to subsidising our neighbours through smuggling. This is pathetic. But let us assume (assumption being the lowest level of knowledge) that the government is unable to protect our borders and checkmate the brisk smuggling going on. Even then, the figures still don’t add up. This is because even if 50% of the petrol consumed in each of our neighbouring countries is illegally exported from Nigeria, the figures are still inaccurate. Why?

WORLD BANK’S FIGURES: POPULATIONS OF WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES

NIGERIA: 158.4 million

BENIN: 8.8 million

TOGO: 6 million

CAMEROUN: 19.2 million

NIGER: 15.5 million

CHAD: 11.2 million

GHANA: 24.4 million


The total population of all our six (6) neighbours is 85.5 million.

Let’s do some more arithmetic:

a) Rate of Petrol Consumption in Nigeria: Total consumed divided by total population:
34 million litres divided by 158.8 million people = 0.21 litres per person per day

b) Rate of Petrol Consumption in all our 6 neighbouring countries, assumed to be the same as Nigeria:
0.2 litres x 85.5 million people = 18.35 million litres per day

Now, if we assume that 50% of the petrol consumed in all the six neighbouring countries comes from Nigeria, this value come to 9.18 million litres per day.

7) PATHETIC ABSURDITY

There are two illogicalities flowing from this smuggling saga.

a) If 9.18 million litres of petrol is truly smuggled out of our borders per day, then ours is the most porous nation in the word. This is why: The biggest fuel tankers in Nigeria have a capacity of about 36,000 litres. To smuggle 9.18 million litres of fuel, you need 254 trucks. What our government is telling us is that 254 huge tankers pass through our borders every day and they cannot do anything about it. This is not just acute incompetence, but also a serious security challenge. For if the government cannot stop 254 tanker trailers from crossing the border daily, how can they stop importation of weapons or even invasion by a foreign country?

b) 2nd illogicality: Even if we believe the government and assume that about 9.18 million litres is actually taken to our neighbours by way of smuggling every day, and all this is subsidised by the Nigerian government, the figures being touted as subsidy still don’t add up. This is why:


Difference between pump price before and after subsidy removal =
N141.00 – N65.00 = N76.00

Total spent on subsidizing petrol to our neighbours annually =
N76.00 x 9.18 million litres x 365 days = N255 billion

If you take the N255 billion away from the N617 billion shortfall that the government cannot explain, there is still a shortfall of N362 billion. The government still needs to tell us what/who is eating up this N362 billion ($2.26 billion USD).

8) ILLOGICAL ASSUMPTIONS

i) We have assumed that there are no working refineries in Nigeria and so no local petrol production whatsoever – yet, there is, even if the refineries are working below capacity.

ii) Nigeria actually consumes 34 million litres of petrol per day. Most experts disagree and give a figure between 20 and 25 million litres per day. Yet there is still an unexplainable shortfall even if we use the exaggerated figure of the government.

iii) Ghana, Togo, Benin, Cameroun, Niger, and Chad all consume the same rate as Nigeria and get 50% of their petrol illegally from Nigeria through smuggling.

These figures simply show the incompetence and insincerity of our government officials. This is pure banditry.

9) FACT 9: The simplest part of the fuel subsidy arithmetic will reveal one startling fact: That the government
does not need to subsidise our petrol at all if we reject corruption and sleaze as a way of life. Check this out:

a) NNPC crude oil allocation for local consumption = 400,000 barrels per day (from a total of 2.450 million barrels per day).

b) If our refineries work at just 30%, 280,000 barrels can be sold on the international market, leaving the rest for local production.

c) Money accruing to the federal government through NNPC on the sale, using $80/bbl – a conservative figure as against the current price of $100/bbl – would be $22.4m per day. Annually this translates to $8.176bn or N1.3 trillion.

d) The government does not need to subsidise our petrol imports - at least not from the Federation Account. The same crude that should have been refined by NNPC is simply sold on the international market (since our refineries barely work) and the money is used to buy petrol. The 400,000 barrels per day given to NNPC for local consumption can either be refined by NNPC or sold to pay for imports. This absurdity called subsidy should be funded with this money, not the regular FGN budget.

If the FGN uses it regular budget for subsidising petrol, then what happens to the crude oil given to NNPC for local refining that gets sold on the international market?

10) TACTICAL BLUNDER

The Federal Government is making the deregulation issue a revenue problem. Nigerians are not against deregulation. We have seen deregulation in the telecom sector and Nigerians are better for it, as even the poor have access to telephones now right before the eyes of those who think it is not for them. What is happening presently is not deregulation but an all-time high fuel pump increase, unprecedented in the history of our nation by a government that has gone broke due to excessive and reckless spending largely on themselves. If the excesses of all the three tiers of government are seriously curbed, that would free enough money for infrastructural development without unduly punishing the poor citizens of this country.

Let me just cite, in closing, the example of National Assembly excesses and misplaced spending as contained in the 2012 budget proposal:

Number of Senators 109
Number of Members of the House of Representatives 360
Total Number of Legislators 469
2012 Budget Proposal for the National Assembly N150 billion
Average Cost of Maintaining Each Member N320 million
Average Cost of Maintaining Each Member in USD $2.1 million/year

Time has come for the citizens of this country to hold the government accountable and demand the prosecution of those bleeding our nation to death. Until this government downsizes, cuts down its profligacy and leads by example in modesty and moderation, the poor people of this country will not and must not subsidise the excesses of the oil sector fat cats and the immorality cum fiscal scandal of the self-centred and indulgent lifestyles of those in government.

Here is a hidden treasure of wisdom for those in power while there is still time to make amends:
PROVERBS 21:6&7

“Getting treasures by a lying tongue is the fleeting fantasy of those who seek death. The violence of the wicked will destroy them because they refuse to do just.”

A word of counsel for those who voted for such soulishly indulgent leadership:

“Never trust a man who once had no shoes, or you may end up losing your legs.”

This is the conclusion of the matter on subsidy removal:

i) “If a ruler pays attention to lies, all his servants become wicked.” (Proverbs 29:12)

ii) “The Righteous God wisely considers the house of the wicked, overthrowing the wicked for their wickedness. Whoever shuts his ears to the cry of the poor will also cry himself and will not be heard.” (Proverbs 21:12&13)

Thanks for your attention. God bless you all.

Pastor ‘Tunde Bakare

Fuel Subsidy Series I

I have read a number of articles and viewed pictures about the ongoing fuel saga. While some are well thought out and others quite illogical; it was pure rage I felt at the sight of the naked body of the gunned teenager. That boy is someone's son and displaying him in such a state kills the message and changes the focus of the story. The bullet did not undress him... Let's take care not to distort the real meaning of our messages. I'll share some of the materials... Feel free to read and comment. Okonjo Iweala’s Anti-subsidy movie Bayo Onanuga On the eve of Nigeria’s general strike to protest the removal of petrol subsidy in the country by the Goodluck Jonathan administration, I have been researching the archives, using the Freedom of Information law as cover, to find out how President Jonathan reached his present anti-people policy. It all started on 6 December last year, when Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, the Finance minister and the coordinating minister for the economy (a position not provided in our constitution) presented ‘briefs’ to the Federal Executive Council on why the Jonathan administration must end the subsidy in less than a month. When Nigerians go through these so called facts, they will find that Okonjo’s conclusions are the typical, ‘working to the answer’. Her thesis cannot stand the test of a strict scrutiny and indeed calls into question her credentials as a financial expert. For starters: 1. Okonjo’s thesis was wrong from the beginning: she says that subsidy does not reach the poor, that only the rich and the middle class are the beneficiaries. The hollowness and shallowness of the position have been profoundly proven by the cries of agony by Nigerians. Who have been the most hit by the anti-people measure? The poor. Who have been crying loudest? The poor. Even, if we accept her theory that the rich and middle class are the greatest beneficiaries of oil subsidy, are they not Nigerians? Are they not entitled to some goodies from their government? 2. Okonjo posited that Nigeria had spent N3.6 trillion on subsidy in five years, an average of N660 billion yearly, but fails to explain how the figure rose to N1.3 trillion in 2011, the same year like 2008 when international oil prices shot to the roof. Using Okonjo’s statistics, the average crude oil price in 2008 was $101.78 dollars, compared with $113.98 in 2011. The amount of subsidy in those years was at variance by more than 10 per cent that any reasonable, rational, logical person will expect. What accounted for this difference? Was subsidy fund stolen to fund Jonathan’s re-election campaign? Was the increase in subsidy expenses because the oil cabal presented bogus claims for settlement? Mrs. Okonjo Iweala did not explain and no one provided any details. 3. Okonjo’s analysis to paint subsidy as bad and to justify why it must go, were based on two oil prices and it was obvious she did so to arrive at her bogus conclusion. In one breath, she used $113 dollars as the base price of crude oil to determine how Nigeria’s subsidized oil price ranks with other African countries. At 46 cents, petrol is cheapest in Nigeria, compared with mainly non-oil producing countries, such as Cape Verde, CAR, Malawi, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, and Mali etc. Angola, an oil producer is also classified as selling its petrol higher than Nigeria at 69 cents a litre. If only Mrs. Okonjo had looked at her figures and graph, she would have seen two other oil producers in Africa, seating pretty below Nigeria on this price graph. These countries are Algeria, which unlike Nigeria sells more refined products than Nigeria, which sells its crude to the world, without trying to add value, by refining and creating jobs at home. The other country is Libya. Algeria sells a litre of petrol at 32 cents and Libya sells its own at 17 cents. They are fellow oil producers like our country. According to Okonjo, these countries offer cheap fuel to their people because they are not as populated like Nigeria and because they have higher per capita than Nigeria. However missing from her explanation was whether those countries behave like Nigeria’s irresponsible rulers, spending three-quarters of their budget on recurrent expenditure, cutlery, bullet proof cars and so on. 4. In another breath, Mrs. Okonjo compared Nigeria’s oil price last year, with a mixed bag of European, Latin America and African nations, all oil producers. These statistics showed that Nigeria’s price at N65 was not the cheapest in the world. Although petrol sold cheaper here then than Angola and Sudan, in Venezuela, it is almost free at 3 cents. Brunei, Yemen, Oman, Algeria, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran all offer their petrol very cheap to their people. In Iran, it is 10 cents, compared with Nigeria’s January 2012 price of almost $1. The Saudis sell their oil at 17 cents, Kuwait at 22 cents. 5. With subsidy removed, we can already feel the effects the increase has had on the Nigerian people: it has further pauperized them and has made things more difficult for the 90 per cent living on less than $2 a day, according to Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the Central bank governor. 6. In further analysis, Okonjo presented another graph that shows Nigeria’s position, among other oil producers and African nations after the subsidy removal. The graph puts the cost of fuel at 69 cents, using another oil price as basis—$90 per barrel. Of course all Nigerians know that the fuel they are selling at gas stations is between N141 and N150, which is very close to $1. Curiously, on the same graph sits USA. There, a litre of oil is 80 cents, cheaper than what the Russians (84 cents), the Indonesians (83 cents), war-torn Iraq (81 cents) pay for a litre of fuel. 7. Nigerians need to ask Okonjo the logic that supports citizens of an oil-producing nation, like Nigeria, paying more money for fuel than the Americans, oil importers, pay. America has a greater per capita than Nigeria; the least income earner in America earns at least $24,000 a year, compared with Nigeria where 90 per cent live on $2 a day. Will this policy not diminish further our people’s capacity to get out of the vicious bracket of poverty? How now will 90 per cent of Nigerians starving on $2 a day, not be economically asphyxiated when commodity prices have jumped, in some cases by 100 per cent? In my view, her argument and the entire policy of removing the fuel subsidy are ill thought out and ‘callous’ as some Nigerians have said.